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First Glance at Republican Presidential Hopefuls
By JBC | March 21, 2007
Ladies and gentlemen, I apologize for the delay in getting this post up. My wife and I were moving, and therefore there were other things to do. While it is really important to rant and rave about politics, one political truth I hold very dear is that one must take care of his own affairs first!
OK, on with the Stupid Party analysis.
Yankee Liberal. Does anyone, even that unofficial Rudy Guliani For President mouthpiece, Sean Hannity, really think this New York schtick will play in Chattanooga? His views of gun control will be an endless source of grief while on the platform in the former Confederacy. His views on abortion will not put him in good standing in the large active Christian community of the South. In fact, Mr. Rudy Guliani is better suited to run for office as a Democrat. Sure, he is pro Big Business and supposedly tough on crime (unless you consider constant violation of our borders a crime), but that is where Mr. 9/11’s conservatism ends. Is that really enough for conservatives? I certainly hope not. His chances for appearing at the top of the GOP ticket, 10%. Chances of winning the general election if nominated, 50% (a choice between a GOP liberal and a Democratic liberal is a toss-up, right?).
Crazy McCain. Have the GOP faithful forgotten that this guy has been a thorn in their sides for a decade? Has his constant flirtation with Killer Kennedy and other whack-job Dems failed to damage his standing within the party? No, it has not. McCain has a tough mountain to climb on two fronts: first, the Yellow Dog Republicans will never forget his alliances with “the enemy”; secondly, true conservatives have problems with his lack of dedication to socially conservative agenda. Additionally, if by miracle, he wins the GOP nomination, he’ll have every Democratic worker out there using the words crazy, insane, unstable, delusional, and scary at every opportunity. He just appears a bit dodgy to the average American. McCain’s chances of riding the elephant in ‘08, 20%. McCain’s chances of winning the general election, if nominated, 25%.
The Massachusetts Mormon. Hmmm, shouldn’t the title give this away? Mitt Romney is the Governor of Massachusetts. Enough said. He’s a Mormon….huh? Yeah, I don’t know much about that religion, and neither does most of America, and that ain’t gonna help him. Hey, this ain’t Catholicism we’re talking about. People won’t vote for him, NOT because they are anti-Mormon, but because most people are afraid of the unknown. Americans have selected Catholics, Quakers, Southern Baptists, Methodists, and others for President. But, they understood them, for the most part. They knew that John Kennedy would not take his marching orders from Rome. But, what is this Church of Latter Day Saints thing? I think that this question alone will cause him problems. If he gets past this hurdle, he’ll have to explain his on again/off again Pro-Choice stances, and his creation of a socialized medical program in Taxachussetts. I think Romney’s chances are as good as Guliani’s, which says a lot about America. It isn’t any scarier to vote for a Mormon than a New Yorker - 10%. His chances of winning the general election, if nominated, 50% (non-Conservatives don’t care about religion).
Mr. Anti-Illegal Immigration. Tom Tancredo has been saying the right things for years regarding our borders and national security. Is he a one-trick pony? Well, not really, but this is the issue that will get him the nomination, or get him an early ticket home. He has a very conservative voting record, but has generally followed the neo-con pack on the issues of government spending and the war in Iraq. This won’t hurt him with the party faithful at all. Tancredo’s problem will be getting some traction on his primary issue. I think he will make it fairly central at some point in the campaign, with possible help from Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter…but will it be too late and too little? Chances of getting the GOP nod, 5%. Chances of winning the general election, if nominated, 50%.
Ron Paul. He is the Real Deal. He is a Constitutionalist to the core. If ain’t in the document, he ain’t supporting it. Some call him Dr. No, because he refuses to vote for federal programs that are not listed in our creational document as the domain of the central government. We need more people like Dr. Paul. Additionally, he has been a vociferous opponent of the war in Iraq. He is a non-interventionist in foreign policy, because he sticks to the warnings laid down by George Washington, and other founders, to beware of foreign wars and “foreign entanglements”. Additionally, he believes that we must trim, actually butcher, the unconstitutional fat from our budgets and restore a limited central governing authority, with states regaining their previous stature. He believes in true border security, with no support for amnesty, in order to protect our sovereignty. Dr. Paul supports our departure from the UN. Should I say more, or all of you heading to his website to see if he is too good to be true? Unfortunately, his chances of getting the GOP nomination are on the order of 1%. His chances of winning the general election, if nominated, 60% (his rejection of foreign intervention and limited governmental intrusion should get pretty good grip with the libertarian crowd).
Duncan Hunter. Another solid conservative. This California conservative is a solid supporter of a conservative social agenda, a detractor of international trade agreements like CAFTA and NAFTA, an ardent supporter of tougher border security and immigration laws, a solid supporter of smaller government and lower taxes, a supporter of the Second Amendment. He walks the walk, and will lose no votes from the Bush faction, as he supported the war in Iraq AND the intervention in Kosovo. He is not well known to the general public, and must come out of a crowded field, while starting several furlongs behind. His chances of winning the GOP nomination, 1%. His chances of winning the general election, if selected, 55%.
Contract With America. Newt is back, or is he? Mr. Gingrich has given up the Speaker of the House and Congress to play a more academic role in the political arena. Does he want to get back in the fray, and on the front pages? You betcha he does. Will he do so? I’m not so sure. He may very well be past his prime, playing the Al Gore part on the GOP side of the house. He appears more conservative and more charismatic than the majority of the big players in the GOP race, but he needs to appear fresh and have the air of electability. These are his biggest problems. We all know Newt’s positions. His is a fairly centrist conservative, neither a ardent constitutionalist, nor a full-bore neo-Con pseudo-liberal. I’m not so sure that he engenders enthusiastic support from any circles, however. His chances of getting the GOP nomination, if he ever makes a decision, 10%. Chances of winning the general election are more limited than others, however, because of his high negative ratings, 40%.
Sam Brownback. More of an unknown quantity, and that is not a good thing. He is an ardent social conservative, who tacitly supported the interventionist foreign policy and “comprehensive” immigration reform of the neo-Con Bush crowd. He actually pushes all the right buttons to get the GOP nod, but he is not overly charismatic and needs to get some kind of separation from McCain and Romney, which will be difficult. Chances of getting to the top of the GOP ticket, 10%, chances of winning the general election, if selected, 50%.
Most of you are probably pretty good at math, and see that my percentages for garnering the GOP nomination add up to 67%. The GOP nomination is a wide open affair in my book, with neither of the three front runners, Guliani, McCain, and Romney, assured of completing the course. I think that Brownback or Gingrich have just as much chance as the “chosen ones” to jump into a lagging race and take the prize. Additionally, there are others waiting in the wings, like Fred Thompson, who I believe have about a 33% chance coming out of “left field” to change the dynamics of the race at the last minute.
Overall, I’d say the best chances are for Clinton to face a yet-to-be-named GOP candidate, with the whole contest being a 50/50 coin toss. The Dems can increase their chances in the big race by selecting Edwards or another non-Rust Belt candidate, and the GOP can increase their odds in the contest by selecting a real conservative that the faithful can get their teeth into. I don’t think either is likely, and the choice will, once again, be between a “lesser of two unexciting, unimaginative, big government, same ole same ole, evils”. Sad, isn’t it?
Topics: NeoCONS, Elections, Republicants |
